Thursday, January 5, 2017

Rivers, not Railways, the lifeline of the Country

India is somewhat unique in the world in that it has some of the highest levels of regenerative natural resources. The land itself naturally produces so many resources and raw material which is the beginning of many economic activities. This is where the "global south" has an advantage over the global north. Therefor we are able to use those resources over and over again to produce food and essential basic items, without much effort. Whereas other countries must try very hard by means of sophisticated machinery and chemical to produce enough raw material. Essentially we can be self sufficient for our basic needs and in fact be a surplus producer of these goods, and export them to the world.

For example, currently we produce some of the highest levels of cotton, nearly neck in neck with China, yet we fall far behind China in actual textile production. So that means that our cotton is exported as merely a raw material, as opposed to being a finished cloth. I think that perhaps we are self sufficient in our own clothing, now we need to produce for our neighbors and to the world.

Machines help us to produce and harness the economies of scale, but to get cotton from the Indian countryside to the American consumer, it requires a lot of coordination and logistical advancement. Most of the cotton is grown in the Indian hinterland, and it needs to travel from that wide range to the city, so that it can be processed, then it needs to be loaded on ships and sent out. This requires inter connectivity via infrastructure and fuel.

rice paddy transported in Kerala's backwaters

But I believe that we can create an indigenous infrastructure, or that in fact that we already have one. We have an amazing river network that connects almost the entire country. One major problem is that there are dams along many of these rivers that block the movement of boats. I believe the economic activity that these dams stop is greater than whatever economic value that can be derived from power generation / irrigation. For all this talk of infrastructure, we already have a more superior network that God has given to us for free.

The government really does not need to spend any money on infrastructure, if we rely on our rivers. We merely need to make them navigable. Even dredging is not necessarily needed; smaller boats can easily pass through areas where large ships cant, which brings down economies of scale, but increases employment per se. So by not spending money on dredging, you increase employment. If this proves prohibitive in cost, traders or merchants may invest in dredging where they see the need. We should not spend money on infrastructure that would take a long time to re-coop the cost.

So you can imagine how many port cities we would have. Instead of a handful major coastal cities playing the most important role, the market share would spread out across the entire country on these "River Cities". According to one source there are 75 or so cities that are located on river banks, but I believe there are more.

By this theory, without much technological input and advancement, India could undercut many of the economies of the world, providing a decentralized model to increase the wealth of many.

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